About the Author
The Atomic Bomb: Hiroshima and Nagasaki
U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey (1946)
Annotation
After the war, Secretary of War Henry Stimson commissioned a set of studies to assess the effectiveness of its strategic bombing campaigns—that is, the use of aircraft to drop bombs on civilian and industrial targets rather than on purely military objectives—in both Europe and the Pacific. More than 1,000 people participated in the data collection, analysis, and conclusions, which ran to more than 300 volumes. At a time when a great deal of debate surrounded the use of air power in wartime, the Strategic Bombing Survey’s findings that the air campaigns had a decisive effect on Allied victory (principally by disrupting German war production) provided important encouragement for those seeking to establish the Air Force as an independent service and to increase the emphasis on air power in future military planning.
While generally favorable regarding the contributions of strategic bombing to overall victory, the Strategic Bombing Survey was less enthusiastic about the impact of the atomic weapons. Indeed, its passages on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks concluded that “based on a detailed investigation of all the facts, and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey's opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.” That finding assumed that the conventional bombing campaign against Japan (mainly using firebombs against cities) would have continued. The SBS findings did not settle the controversy, however, and a number of later historians charged the Survey with drawing conclusions beyond what the available evidence could support.
Excerpt from U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey:
The Survey's complement provided for 300 civilians, 350 officers, and 500 enlisted men. The military segment of the organization was drawn from the Army to the extent of 60 per cent, and from the Navy to the extent of 40 per cent. Both the Army and the Navy gave the Survey all possible assistance in furnishing men, supplies, transport and information. The Survey operated from headquarters established in Tokyo early in September, 1945 with sub-headquarters in Nagoya, Osaka, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and with mobile teams operating in other parts of Japan, the islands of the Pacific, and the Asiatic mainland.
It was possible to reconstruct much of wartime Japanese military planning and execution engagement by engagement and campaign by Campaign, and to secure reasonably accurate statistics on Japan's economy and war-production plant by plant, and industry by industry. In addition, studies were conducted on Japan's overall strategic plans and the background of her entry into the war, the internal discussions and negotiations leading to her acceptance of unconditional surrender, the course of health and morale among the civilian population, the effectiveness of the Japanese civilian defense organization, and the effects of the atomic bombs. Separate reports will be issued covering each phase of the study. . . .
There is little point in attempting more precisely to impute Japan’s unconditional surrender to any one of the numerous causes which jointly and cumulatively were responsible for Japan’s disaster. Concerning the absoluteness of her defeat there can be no doubt. The time lapse between military impotence and political acceptance of the inevitable might have been shorter had the political structure of Japan permitted a more rapid and decisive determination of national policies. It seems clear, however, that air supremacy and its exploitation over Japan proper was the major factor which determined the timing of Japan’s surrender and obviated any need for invasion.
Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey’s opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to 1 November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.
Harry S. Truman Library and Museum. U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey. "Japan's Struggle to End the War." Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1946. Accessed March 2, 2012.