Questioning History Using the Census

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Table, Census data
Table, Census data
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What can we learn about the importance of population change and industrial development in Detroit, MI? What does the Detroit story tell us about industrialization in American history? Do upsurges or downturns in the population become permanent? Or do they change direction again? Where do the people come from who determine the population changes, and where do they go? The 2010 Census and other demographic data helped me answer these questions for myself. Students can use demographic data to answer questions in similar ways.

Looking for More Information

Detroit's volatile population changes drew media attention in the spring of 2011 as the 2010 Census figures were being rolled out. I became curious about the reasons for this population change. The overall U.S. population reached 308 million in 2010, about a 10% growth rate, from 2000. Most states and major urban areas grew at a 1% per year rate. There were, however, a few areas which did not grow, but declined. One of those was Detroit.

I wanted to know more about the situation with Detroit and why people came and left at different times in its history. I looked into Detroit's population history through the once-a-decade census reports that are available from the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2010 Census website, and the University of Virginia's Historical Census Browser. The Census Bureau also published the American Community Survey in the years 2005–2009 that covers occupations, social statistics, housing, mobility, language use, country of origin, and other data. These surveys are available on Detroit's Population and Housing Narrative Profile and in its American FactFinder.

To get a feel for the demographic volatility in the history of Detroit since 1850, I examined the Census figures for each year and the percentages of increase or decrease:

Table, Census data

Comparing Interpretations

Now that I had the numbers, I looked for interpretations. An NBC analysis of Census figures attributes the Detroit population decline to "steady downsizing of the auto industry":

Detroit's population peaked at 1.8 million in 1950, when it ranked fifth nationally. But the new numbers reflect a steady downsizing of the auto industry—the city's economic lifeblood for a century—and an exodus of many residents to the suburbs. Detroit's population plunged 25% in the past decade to 713,777, the lowest count since 1910, four years before Henry Ford offered $5 a day to autoworkers, sparking a boom that quadrupled the Motor City's size in the first half of the 20th century.

This led me to ask, what did Detroit's actual population look like in earlier years? I examined some of these periods of time, using older census data. The 1950 U.S. Census found that the population of the city was 1,849,568. It had grown by over 200,000 from its 1940 population of 1,623,452. The foreign-born population was 276,000 from Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, the USSR, England/Wales, and Scotland. The black population was 300,506. The 1910 U.S. Census revealed that the total population was 465,786. The native white population was 115,106, the black population was 85,000, and the foreign born was 156,555. The foreign born of this era came from Germany, Canada, Russia, Austria, Hungary, Ireland, and Poland.

Finally, I checked Detroit's pre-industrial censuses from 1850 to 1880 and found the area to be rural but commercially active as a Great Lakes port. It grew rapidly in these years, but had only a small fraction of the population it would later have during the rapid growth of the auto industry.

Questions Lead to Questions

Now I had another question. Where did the people who contributed to this growth come from? The Detroit News' website, detnews.com, gave me an answer in an article by Vivian Baulch entitled "Michigan's Greatest Treasure-its people." This article presents an ethnic description of Detroit from the time that it was an important stop on the Underground Railroad through the boom years of the auto industry. The article concludes with a quote by historian Arthur Woodford:

Detroit has "the largest multi-ethnic population of any city in the United States. Detroit has the largest Arabic-speaking population outside of the Middle East, the second largest Polish population in America (only Chicago has more), and the largest U.S. concentration of Belgians, Chaldeans and Maltese."

Another source is the U.S. Senate's hearings in 1908–1911 on Immigration and Industry. Known as the Dillingham Commission, the hearings' 31 volumes have been digitized by Stanford University's e-brary. Volume 8 provides an insight into Detroit's diversity as shown by the children of immigrant workers in their school settings.

Synthesizing My Findings

These population figures, when I connected them to the rapid growth and consolidation of the auto industry and the upsurge in immigration and internal migration, gave me an overview of what happened in Detroit. It showed a boom and bust cycle in industry and the apparent willingness of many people to leave the city and/or metropolitan area when economic conditions are bad. The rise and decline of the American auto industry helped me get a grip on industrialization as a major factor in population growth and decline. Other industries such as iron, steel, car parts, batteries, tires, and glass are at least partially dependent on, or tied to, the fortunes of the auto industry, and thus whatever happens to the auto industry in Detroit has an impact on the national industrial scene. Other nearby formerly industrial cities have demographics similar to Detroit's. However, the decline may not be permanent. The auto industry has begun a modest revival and may continue to grow in the near future. Detroit is still the center of this industry and may again rise to a greater position of prominence among American cities.

By exploring census and other demographic data, students can form their own historical questions and answer them by tracing quantitative and interpretative information, just as I did. Population and industry shifts can rarely be understood from one source. Ask a question and use the information you find to assemble you own answer.

Bibliography

Associated Press. "Census: Detroit's population plummets 25 percent". March 22, 2011. Accessed May 26, 2011.

Baulch, Vivian. "Michigan's Greatest Treasure-its people." Detroit News. September 4, 1999. Accessed May 26, 2011.

For more information

Intimidated by the thought of working with quantitative data (numbers)? Professor Gary Kornblith guides you through finding and interpreting such data.

If you're looking for some numbers to crunch, more than 50 websites we've reviewed feature quantitative data. Last year, our blog also suggested ideas for teaching with census data.

Foreign Aid: A Give and Take Situation

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Photo, West Berlin, Germany. Marshall Plan. . . , 1948, NARA, Flickr Commons
Question

My students believe the U.S. would be so much better off if we stopped giving away money to other countries, and collected our debts owed to us. Where can I find info about countries that owe us money and/or those that have helped us in emergency situations?

Answer

Three issues are embedded in this query: U.S. foreign aid (giving our money away), collecting debts from abroad, and nations that helped the U.S. when we faced tough times. Let's take them up in order.

Foreign Aid

Since the 1960s, the U.S. has provided a bit under 30 percent of all funds developed countries have given to nations that are considered poor or otherwise economically worthy. Germany, France, and Japan together delivered another 40+ percent. Strategic importance is also a consideration. In U.S. expenditures, Israel and Egypt have received between four and five times the average of what is sent to other nations. This can be attributed to foreign policy concerns: the U.S. continued support of Israel, and Egypt's willingness to withdraw from Middle East hostilities toward Israel. (1)

Another way to look at this is by comparing the amount of foreign aid with other expenditures. From the 1970s, non-military foreign aid has been less than half of one percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By contrast, U.S. spending on health care stands at 16% of GDP, its share having risen for over a generation. (2) In addition, it should be noted that foreign aid is politically targeted money; cutting it to zero can do little to solve U.S. financial difficulties, but might create new political difficulties. The key conclusions are that foreign aid serves U.S. political and economic aims, including rewarding friends, and is a tool in a rivalry among developed countries for influence, respect, and, at times, access to key resources.

Collecting Debts
Trade debts are created when, collectively, an economy's firms buy more goods or services from abroad than they can sell to foreigners.

International debts may occur between states or between companies. They also may involve states owing sums to foreign firms/individuals or particular firms/individuals owing foreign states. Governments often issue interest-bearing bonds that other people or other governments buy; banks do the same. The governments and banks owe the bondholders their money back when the bond's time period expires (from a few months to 30-40 years). Trade debts are created when, collectively, an economy's firms buy more goods or services from abroad than they can sell to foreigners. Often in wartime, allied governments supply one another with materiel, keeping track of the values shipped and received. So how did this work out for the U.S. in the 20th century?

Working backwards, in World War I the U.S. supplied Britain and France with munitions and other supplies before it entered the conflict in April 1917, totalling over $7 billion, to which post-war loans for reconstruction added $3 billion. In part to pay back the U.S., Britain and France demanded that the "aggressor," Germany, deliver sizable long-term reparations (in cash and materials). This slowed German recovery and generated a political backlash that assisted Hitler’s rise. The Nazis, once in power, refused further payments to Britain, causing Britain to also stop payments to the U.S. These debts, the only ones now owed us by other nations, are uncollectable, although Britain’s World War II debts to the U.S. have been cleared, as was the final World War I reparations balance between Germany and Britain (2010). (3)

We can't blame it on others, but it's also tough to take responsibility for how deeply we are in debt without anticipating long, hard decades climbing out of these holes.

As for trade debts, for 30 years after 1945, the U.S. sold more than it imported; thus firms elsewhere sent funds to make up the difference in goods and services totals. For the 35 years since 1975, our international clients have bought less from us than they have sold to us; hence we have to send dollars abroad to cover the difference. Since we neither reduced consumption or raised taxes to work off this imbalance, the value of our dollars fell in relation to the currencies of countries with different financial policies. (4) This makes many imports more expensive, encouraging foreign makers of, say, automobiles to build production plants in the U.S., though of course the profits aren't "ours." In 2011, neither governments nor firms owe the U.S. significant sums of money, relative to the size of our trade and budget deficits. Indeed, foreign firms own 47 percent and foreign governments another 25 percent of U.S. national obligations (particularly Treasury bonds). (5) This is why "cutting" spending is on many policy agendas, with some proposing "taxing" as well, precisely because it's up to us to figure a way out of this situation. We can't blame it on others, but it's also tough to take responsibility for how deeply we are in debt without anticipating long, hard decades climbing out of these holes.

Foreign Countries Offering Aid to the U.S.

3) A final note on others helping us in hard times: This has happened on occasion, but two examples stand out. In the second half of the 18th century, France stepped up to challenge Britain in North America, both in the French and Indian Wars and during the American Revolution, continuing an anti-England policy and costing their treasury dearly. The U.S. did not (and could not) step up to defend the French king during the French Revolution several years later. In addition, before the Civil War, local railroad builders needed foreign cash infusions to erect our first regional networks. State governments guaranteed these bonds, and the cash flowed in. When after the 1837 crash companies failed and states were called upon to back their guarantees with tax revenues, many defaulted, ruining both foreign investors and the U.S.'s financial reputation. Later, U.S. railroads struggled to find sufficient capital to build an integrated transport system for an industrializing continent. British and French capitalists came to our rescue, buying railway shares and bonds to fund construction and equipment. However, many of them received only trouble in return, as a full one-third of U.S. railway mileage fell into bankruptcy by the 1890s, necessitating wholesale reorganizations which ruined the value of many stocks and bonds.

A little history can help undermine any argument that other nations are ungrateful to America, as we've been there too. After World War I, our allies urged the U.S. to forgive the debts they owed to us, given that they had fought Germany for three long years. We said no, President Coolidge famously asserting that "They hired the money, didn't they." (6)

For more information

U.S. Foreign Aid Data:

U.S. Census Bureau. Statistical Abstract 2011

U.S. Foreign Aid History:

USAID.

Balance of Payments:

U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

For historical data since 1960: Bureau of Economic Analysis. International Economic Accounts.

International Debt Statistics:

World Bank Quarterly. External Debt.

Bibliography

1 Alberto Alesina and David Dollar. "Who gives foreign aid to whom and why?" Journal of Economic Growth, 5(March 2000): 33-63, info from 36, 40.

Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook, and Bruce Taylor. "." World Politics 50(1998): 294-323.

2 Peter Hjertholm and Howard White. "Survey of Foreign Aid: History, Trends and Allocation.” Discussion Paper 00-04, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 1999, 17-18. Accessed 29 May 2011.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. National Health Expenditure Fact Sheet, 13 January 2011. Accessed 29 May 2011.
Estimates suggest health care costs could reach 19 percent of GDP by 2019.

3 Finlo Rohrer. "What's a little debt between friends?" BBC News Magazine, 10 May 2006. Accessed 30 May 2011.

4 Catherine L. Mann.Is the US Trade Deficit Sustainable? New York: Institute for International Economics. 1999.

Sebastian Edwards, "Is the US Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And if Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely to Be?" NBER Working Paper 11541, August 2005.

5 "United States Public Debt." Wikipedia. (a very thorough article)

6 Time Magazine. October 15, 1928.
article/0,9171,731970,00.html (accessed 30 May 2011).

The American West in the 20th Century

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From the Gilder Lehrman Institute:

Richard White, Margaret Byrne Professor of American History at Stanford University, explores the history of the American West in the 1930s and 1940s. He examines the broad transformations that took place in the West during the New Deal, but also draws attention to some deeper structures in the West that did not change during that time.

The African Slave Trade, 1500-1800

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From the Gilder Lehrman Institute:

Historian Philip D. Morgan explores the core experiences of slavery itself, including life on the African coast and on sugar plantations in the new world. He discusses the wide range of experiences that an enslaved person might experience in different countries during the height of the transatlantic slave trade.

Lesson Plans Library

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Introductory graphic (edited), Lesson Plans Library
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Offers hundreds of lesson plans composed by teachers, on a variety of subjects, organized into three groups—K-5, 6-8, and 9-12. Provides 31 plans for grades 9-12 on U.S. history topics, including civil rights, balancing budgets, jazz, opposing views of the Vietnam War, Native American history, the Cold War, Japanese-Americans during World War II, racism, NATO, the Salem Witch Trials, U.S.-Cuba relations, and "The Power of Fiction," focusing on socially-relevant texts. Also includes 33 Literature plans—many on works by American authors—and plans for world history and ancient history. Valuable for high-school level history teachers.

Early American Slave Culture

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In this lecture, historian Philip D. Morgan compares the Lowcountry and Chesapeake slave cultures and reveals much about the way of life of some of the earliest African Americans. Although South Carolina in the 18th century was built by slave labor, Virginia only began to "recruit" slaves in large numbers at the beginning of that century. Consequently, there were substantial differences in the black cultures that emerged in the two regions.

J.P. Morgan

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According to the Gilder Lehrman website, "Award-winning historian Jean Strouse discusses her research into the life of J.P. Morgan, America's most influential banker. She looks at the reasons for his success and delves into his inscrutable personal life. Strouse's extensive scholarship offers many insights into her subject, whose name is in the financial news headlines once again."

FDR's First 100 Days

Description

Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter and Columbia University Provost Alan Brinkley discuss the first 100 days of Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency, the subject of Alter's recent book, The Defining Moment: FDR’s First Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope. The book contends that the first 100 days were not only the beginning of the New Deal, but also "the climax to a piece of political theater," which had begun years earlier when Roosevelt overcame polio and public perceptions of him as an elitist lightweight.