Alternative Outcomes of World War II

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Winston Churchill, drawing by Lynn Ott, 1942
Question

How was the Second World War likely to end if the U.S. hadn't intervened? Who seemed to be winning the war before the U.S. joined after the Pearl Harbor attack? Would the Allies have been able to prevail without U.S. help?

Answer

During the months preceding the attack on Pearl Harbor, the war in Europe had essentially boiled down to a contest between the Axis Powers of Germany and Italy, and against them, the Soviet Union and Great Britain.

Six months before Pearl Harbor, Germany had launched an invasion of the Soviet Union, its erstwhile ally. By December 5, two days before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, German armies had advanced to within 5 miles of Moscow.

Hitler had decided to postpone a cross-channel invasion of Britain itself until his armies were able to defeat the Soviet Union, but Germany was still fighting Britain through aerial and missile bombing, and was engaged against Britain on the seas, as well as elsewhere in the British Empire, as in North Africa. In South Asia, Britain was also defending its colonies and commonwealth against Japan. On the face of it, especially in the long term and even with Lend-Lease aid from the United States, it is difficult to see how Britain could have continued the war without the entry of the United States into the conflict on its side. Presumably, Winston Churchill would have had to sue for peace, or endure a German invasion of the British Isles once the Nazis had consolidated their military strength in Europe.

That did not happen, of course. After Churchill heard that America had been attacked at Pearl Harbor, he rushed to a secure telephone to call Franklin Roosevelt. His Memoirs of the Second World War relate the following:

In two or three minutes Mr. Roosevelt came through. "Mr. President, what's this about Japan? "It's quite true," he replied. "They have attacked us at Pearl Harbor. We are all in the same boat now."

No American will think it wrong of me if I proclaim that to have the United States at our side was to me the greatest joy. I could not foretell the course of events. I do not pretend to have measured accurately the martial might of Japan, but now at this very moment I knew the United States was in the war, up to the neck and in to the death. So we had won after all!

Yes, after Dunkirk; after the fall of France; after the horrible episode of Oran; after the threat of invasion, when, apart from the Air and the Navy, we were an almost unarmed people; after the deadly struggle of the U-boat war—the first Battle of the Atlantic, gained by a hand's-breath; after seventeen months of lonely fighting and nineteen months of my responsibility in dire stress. We had won the war. England would live; Britain would live; the Commonwealth of Nations and the Empire would live.

How long the war would last or in what fashion it would end no man could tell, nor did I at this moment care. Once again in our long Island history we should emerge, however mauled or mutilated, safe and victorious. We should not be wiped out. We should not be wiped out. Our history would not come to an end. We might not even have to die as individuals. Hitler's fate was sealed. Mussolini's fate was sealed. As for the Japanese, they would be ground to powder.

United States forces played a direct role in defeating Germany, but also forced Hitler to keep huge military forces in Western Europe rather than sending them to reinforce his armies fighting against the Soviet Union, where they would likely have been a decisive factor against the Soviets. Instead, the German invasion of Russia failed after the effort that culminated at Stalingrad, and the German forces in Western Europe were eventually pushed back anyway, beginning with the landings at Normandy.

One of the delights of the alternate history genre of fiction is that its authors generally expend some considerable effort on the notion of history itself.

Your questions are hypothetical. They invite speculation. One of the delights of the alternate history genre of fiction is that its authors generally expend some considerable effort on the notion of history itself, especially the way in which history unwinds out of a skein of causes both large and small. In these novels, large and familiar causes and conditions and forces roll out across the world, but small human details, such as a missed appointment at the Reichs Ministry, an overlooked telegram, Hitler's mistress Eva Braun's choice of perfume on a fateful day, or a random batch of sunspots that interferes with a particular radio transmission, sometimes cascade into a vastly different history than the one with which we are familiar.

For more information

Philip K. Dick, The Man in the High Castle (1962), in which Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan win World War II. The East Coast and Midwest of the United States are occupied by Germany and the West Coast by Japan.

Harry Turtledove, In the Presence of Mine Enemies (2003), in which the U.S. does not enter the war, and the Axis Powers win. Germany then bombs the U.S. in the 1970s with nuclear weapons and defeats it.

Robert Harris, Fatherland (1992), another one in which Germany wins the war, although the U.S. defeats Japan.

Norman Spinrad, The Iron Dream (1972), which is presented as a science fiction novel written by pulp-fiction artist Adolf Hitler after he flees Germany to live in the United States after the end of the First World War.

Jo Walton’s "Small Change" series [Farthing (2006), Ha’penny (2007), and Half a Crown (2008)], in which the U.S. fails to provide aid to the UK to resist Germany and Britain makes peace with the Nazi Reich. Germany continues a drawn-out war with the Soviet Union, and Britain turns into a fascist state.

Newt Gingrich and William R. Forstchen, 1945 (1995), in which the U.S. defeats Japan but not Germany, and a subsequent "cold war" ensues between the U.S. and Germany.

Bibliography

A People at War

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Photo, Dwight D. Eisenhower Speaks to 101st Airborne, NARA
Annotation

Drawn primarily from documents at the National Archives' National Personnel Records Center, this exhibit explores "the contributions of the thousands of Americans, both military and civilian, who served their country during World War II." Arranged into seven sections--"Prelude to War"; "New Roles"; "Women Who Served"; "The War in the Pacific"; "The War in Europe" "Science Pitches In"; and "The War is Over"--the site presents approximately 60 photographs, editorials, letters, and governmental reports, such as General Benjamin O. Davis's 1943 report concerning racial discrimination in the military. A 3,000-word background essay narrates the materials. Though lacking in depth and limited in size, the exhibit offers a selection of valuable and interesting materials regarding the war effort.

July 1942: United We Stand

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Cover, "Screen Romances," August 1942
Annotation

Presents an exhibit on the "United We Stand" campaign of July 1942, a collaboration of the National Publishers Association and the Treasury Department in which approximately 500 magazine publications carried images of the American flag on their covers. The intent of the campaign was to raise public morale and stimulate the sale of war bonds during a time of national anxiety concerning the course World War II had taken. The exhibit includes nearly 300 covers along with a photo-narrative that addresses the history of the campaign and selected aspects of cover design issues. The exhibit also makes an effort to draw parallels to the recent nationwide display of the flag following the September 11th attacks.

Magazine covers are searchable according to subject, title, and keyword. The site includes a 19-title bibliography. Useful for those studying propaganda efforts, the history of business-government wartime collaboration, homefront nationalism, and the history of the magazine publishing industry.

Remembering Nagasaki

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Photo, Nagasaki, August 10, 1945, Yosuke Yamahata
Annotation

Part of the Memory Exhibition, this site commemorates the 50th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima through the presentation of images of the devastation in the former city and discussion of issues relating to the dropping of the bombs and historical memory of the events. The exhibit contains a slide show of 18 photographs by Japanese army photographer Yosuke Yamahata, taken in Nagasaki on August 10, 1945, the day after the bombing--"the only extensive photographic record of the immediate aftermath of the atomic bombing of either Hiroshima or Nagasaki"--with accompanying comments by Yamahata and a 1,200-word memo he wrote in 1952 on "Photographing the Bomb"; a sampling of approximately 65 recollections from people of different ages, nationalities, and ethnic backgrounds on how they learned about the bombing; excerpts from a public online forum on "the process of representing history, the inhumanity of war, the ethical responsibilities of scientists and technologists, and the historical decision to use the bomb"; and a list of 9 related films, 2 CD-ROMs, 27 books, and 13 links. A well-organized and powerfully presented exhibit.

Hiroshima Peace Site

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Photo, A-Bomb Dome
Annotation

This is a somewhat random collection of material designed to inform visitors about the effects of atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and to encourage discussions about world peace. The Hiroshima City University Department of Computer Science produced the site, which is divided into twenty pages. Pages that address the effects of the bomb include interviews of 700 to 900 words with five survivors and a survey of attitudes of second-generation Hiroshima citizens and children towards the bombing. There are 13 images of objects in the Peace Memorial Museum and 12 photographs that portray the effects of the bomb on Hiroshima. A 600-word essay describes the bomb and its physical effects. Pages that focus on peace include a tour of Peace Park, messages from the Mayors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the 19-page transcript of the Hiroshima Peace Forum, attended by Shimon Peres, Kenzaburo Ooe, and Takeshi Hiraoka. A bibliography provides titles for 37 books about the bomb and links to 30 other bomb related sites. Site may be useful for discussion of the cultural legacy of the bomb.

Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden

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Sculpture, "Untitled (Big Man)," Ron Mueck, 2000
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Provides informative entries on more than 4,000 works of art—more than 500 of which include images—in the collection of the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden in Washington, D.C. "Conceived of as the nation's museum of modern and contemporary art," the Hirshhorn concentrates on the post-World War II period, with special focus on the past 25 years, though it also owns works by influential modern artists from earlier periods. Searchable according to artist, title, date, nationality, and 30 schools of art. Entries provide short essays of up to 200 words on artists and works. Previous and current exhibits are on display. An "Art Interactive" component explains ways that recent sculptors have used various methods and materials, and invites visitors to design their own creations. Useful for those seeking an introduction to modern and contemporary art history.

After the Day of Infamy

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Day of Infamy website screen shot
Annotation

More than 12 hours of audio interviews conducted in the days following the December 7, 1941, attack on Pearl Harbor and in January and February, 1942, are included on this site. Interviews include the voices of 200 "ordinary Americans" recorded in 10 places across the U.S.

December recordings were made by fieldworkers contacted by the Library of Congress Radio Research Project to gather opinions of a diverse group of citizens regarding American entrance into war. In the 1942 recordings, produced by the Office of Emergency Management, interviewees were instructed to speak their minds directly to the President. Interviewees discuss domestic issues, including racism and labor activism, in addition to the war. Related written documents and biographies of the fieldworkers are also presented. The interviews are available in audio files and text transcriptions, and are searchable by keyword, subject, and location.

Beyond the Movie: Pearl Harbor

Description

From the Snag Learning website:

"Explore the real stories, real heroes, real places, and real action underlying the Touchstone Pictures release Pearl Harbor. Did the characters portrayed in the feature film really exist? How did the moviemakers decide when to use real events and when to foray into fiction? National Geographic documents how real life history and fiction came together to make a fascinating story. Spellbinding scenes from the film are juxtaposed with authentic combat footage and insights from historians, combat veterans, top-ranking military personnel, and the film’s all-star cast and crew."

History of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

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Photo, "Tacoma Narrows Bridge. PH Coll. 290.25 UW Lib. Man, SC, Univ Arch Div."
Annotation

This exhibit documents the history of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in Washington State from inception, in November 1938, to collapse, in November 1940, and eventual reconstruction in 1950. In 1940, the original structure was the third longest suspension bridge in the world. The bridge was initially referred to as "the Pearl Harbor of engineering," but the wavelike motion the bridge displayed soon earned it the nickname "Galloping Gertie." The exhibit divides the history of the infamous bridge into five themes--construction, opening, collapse, aftermath, and reconstruction--each with 15 to 30 photographs and newspaper articles accompanied by 50- to 100-word captions. A bibliography of more than 30 items rounds out this online exhibit and those interested in the impact of the bridge on the Gig Harbor Peninsula residents should visit the link Gig Harbor Museum. This is also a valuable site for anyone interested in engineering, aerodynamics, and Pacific Northwest history.

Experiencing War: Stories from the Veterans History Project

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Logo, Veterans History Project
Annotation

This collection presents video and audio oral histories and additional material from American veterans of 20th-century wars. Materials include memoirs (some lengthy), letters, diaries, photo albums, scrapbooks, poetry, artwork, and official documents. The website currently provides digital materials from 4,351 veterans from World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Persian Gulf War, Afghanistan and the Iraq War, and other similar events. The 226 video interviews range from 25 minutes to two hours in length.

The material presented is part of a rapidly growing archive, the Veterans History Project, created by Congress in 2000 to collect stories from the 19 million living veterans. Other sections highlight World War I; World War II's forgotten theaters in China, Burma, and India; and 37 other unique war experiences.